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[cathode material weekly report] some power ternary manufacturers turn to the digital direction, and there is a gap in cobalt supply in the next three years



[interactive] rongbai Technology: it is expected that the proportion of ncm811 cathode materials and related battery products will increase significantly in 2019

Recently, rongbai Technology (688005), a manufacturer of cathode materials for science and technology innovation board, said in an exchange with investors that the time when ncm811 batteries are widely used in power vehicles is affected by government policies, the product launch progress of battery enterprises, the future direction of technological development and so on. However, in the existing technical system, high nickel ternary is the most feasible commercialization scheme, and the trend of high nickel ternary cathode is clear.

As a new generation of high nickel ternary cathode material, ncm811 is expected to have wider applications and faster growth. Since 2017, with the continuous progress of cell technology and the continuous R & D investment of large enterprises, the company and a few other manufacturers have successively achieved mass production of ncm811. Major domestic cylindrical battery enterprises, such as BIC power, Tianjin Lishen, foster, Delang, etc., have successively entered the mass production stage of 811 battery. In the future, with the gradual improvement of equipment automation and the gradual strengthening of production environment control ability, it is expected that the proportion of ncm811 cathode materials and related battery products will increase significantly in 2019.

At present, rongbai technology products are mainly 8 series. In the future, the material development of high nickel and high voltage materials will be the key direction of future research and development. Among them, the high nickel direction develops materials with higher nickel content on the basis of the current Ni content materials, and also has a layout in the aspect of high voltage. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

[forecast] the cobalt price continued to fall in the first July, and Hanrui cobalt industry is expected to have a net profit loss of more than 38million yuan in the first three quarters

On the evening of October 11, Hanrui cobalt (300618) released a performance forecast. It is expected that the company's net profit in the first three quarters will be 38-42 million yuan, with a profit of 700 million yuan in the same period of last year. Hanrui cobalt said that from the fourth quarter of 2018 to July this year, the price of cobalt metal continued to fall, and the sales price of the company's cobalt products fell, reducing the company's profitability.

Southwest Securities believes that since Q2 of 2018, cobalt prices have continued to decline, once falling to a low price of 220000 yuan / ton. Almost all cobalt mines and smelting enterprises are facing losses and deteriorating profits. At the same time, due to the shrinking consumption of smart phones in the downstream 3C sector, the demand for cobalt has decreased, resulting in the growth rate of cobalt demand being less than that of cobalt supply. From the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019, the whole industry is in the stage of destocking, The capacity to be expanded or newly added faces delay or shutdown. We judge that the cobalt industry will go through a period of 1-2 years of bottoming out and destocking. After 2020-2021, 5g commerce will be widely spread, and the arrival of 5g mobile phone replacement tide will drive the demand for cobalt in digital 3C batteries. At the same time, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the volume of power batteries will continue to increase. By 2021, the global consumption of cobalt driven by new energy vehicles will reach 43000 tons, an increase of 150% compared with 17000 tons in 2018. Superimposed on the contraction of cobalt supply: Glencore announced the closure of mutunda cobalt mine, the world's largest producer, and the reduction of production guidelines. The supply and demand pattern is expected to be gradually reversed. By 2021, there will be a gap in cobalt supply, pushing the cobalt price higher gradually. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

格林美签钴原料战略采购长单 嘉能可将供应超6.12万吨钴资源

[order] greenmead signed the strategic purchase of cobalt raw materials, and Shan jianeng, the long-term buyer, will supply more than 61200 tons of cobalt resources

On October 7, greenmead (002340) announced that the company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries Jingmen greenmead new materials Co., Ltd., greenmead (Jiangsu) cobalt Co., Ltd., kellick (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd Greenmea (Wuxi) energy materials Co., Ltd. recently signed a strategic procurement agreement with Glencore International Ag (hereinafter referred to as "Glencore") on the procurement of intermediate products of crude cobalt hydroxide from power battery raw materials and long-term cooperation between the two sides.

The announcement shows that Glencore will supply the company with no less than 61200 tons of cobalt resources (raw material for crude cobalt hydroxide) in the next five years (2020-2024). The company and Glencore agree that the above is a basic strategic purchase quantity, and Glencore promises to give priority to the company's New Cobalt raw material needs in addition to the above basic needs. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

[observation] dynamic cycle of cobalt price rise and fall. There is a gap in cobalt supply in the next three years

Cobalt prices rise and fall in a dynamic cycle, and the inventory level is an important logic line for tracking. Cobalt is a small metal with great price elasticity. From the rise and fall history of the past 15 years, two complete cycles of rise and fall have been accompanied by significant changes in cobalt inventories. Tracking inventory level is an important clue to judge the rise and fall of cobalt price. After more than a year of unilateral decline, the inventory center of cobalt has returned to the supply side. After excluding the reasonable inventory in all links, the net inventory of middlemen is about 1000 tons, the net inventory of cathode plant is basically zero, and the supply side has accumulated more than 30000 tons of cobalt inventory. The extremely low inventory in the downstream is an important sign of the bottoming of cobalt prices, and a catalyst is needed to guide the reversal of price trends.

Glencore shut down mutanda to regulate global cobalt supply, leaving a gap in cobalt supply in the next three years. Glencore's shutdown of the mutanda copper cobalt mine is an important catalyst for the reversal of cobalt supply and demand and the rebound of cobalt prices. In the case of low cobalt prices, Glencore lowered the 2019 cobalt production guideline to 43000 tons, and plans to shut down the mutanda copper cobalt mine with an annual output of 27000 tons by the end of the year. There is no cobalt ore on the supply side that can meet the 27000 ton gap, and the shutdown of mutanda undoubtedly gives the market a firm lock-in expectation. We predict that the total cobalt supply in the next three years will be reduced to 13.67/14.6/162100 tons, respectively, 1.66/3.77/0.88 million tons less than the original expectation. On the demand side, the demand for power batteries has not changed significantly, and the 3C field is expected to have an average annual increase of 4500 tons of cobalt demand due to the early popularization of 5g. It is expected that the supply-demand balance of cobalt will reverse from 2019 to 2021, with supply gaps of 0.2/0.77/0.92 million tons respectively.

From the supply side to the consumption side, the cobalt warehouse is transferred in the price rise. Glencore's mining stoppage stimulated cobalt to stop falling and rebound, and the opening of downstream cathode plants to replenish inventory was the driving factor for the long-term upward trend of cobalt prices. In the process of cobalt price rise, the cathode plant will gradually increase the reasonable inventory and net inventory level. It is expected that the supply side inventory will drop to 20100 tons in the next three years, which is basically equal to the reasonable inventory level of 18000 tons in the upstream. The inventory level of more than 33000 tons was transferred to the downstream, of which the supply gap was 19000 tons, the reasonable inventory was 9000 tons, and the downstream surplus inventory was 5000 tons. (source: Orient Securities)

merger】The merger and acquisition of shengtun lithium by Weihua shares was approved

On the evening of October 9, Weihua shares (002240) announced that on October 9, the mergers and acquisitions Committee of the CSRC held the 47th working meeting of the mergers and acquisitions Committee in 2019 to review the company's issuance of shares to purchase assets and raise supporting funds and related party transactions. According to the review results of the meeting, the transaction was conditionally approved. This acquisition involves Weihua's acquisition of 100% equity of Sichuan shengtun lithium Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "shengtun lithium").

The announcement shows that after the completion of this transaction, the production and sales of new energy materials such as basic lithium salts and rare earth products, one of the main businesses of Weihua shares, will be extended to the mining and dressing business of upstream lithium mines. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

[notice] German nano, a producer of lithium iron phosphate, expects its net profit to exceed 61.85 million yuan in the first three quarters

On October 11, German nano (300769) released a performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2019. It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be 61.85 million yuan – 68.03 million yuan, an increase of 0% - 10% year-on-year.

German nano said that the expected net profit in the reporting period increased slightly compared with the same period of last year, mainly due to: (1) the decline of the company's financial expenses; (2) Increase in government subsidies received; The main reasons for the decline of performance in the third quarter compared with the same period last year are: (1) the industry competition is further intensified, and the product price is falling; (2) The company's accounts receivable increased, and the credit impairment loss increased; (3) R & D investment increased.

On the same day, German nano announced that Qujing German Nano Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Qujing German Party") has completed the industrial and commercial change registration and renewed its business license. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

部分动力三元厂商转攻数码方向 磷酸铁锂需求维持强劲态势

[market] some power ternary manufacturers turn to digital direction, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate remains strong

Sanyuan materials: the price of Sanyuan materials rose slightly this Wednesday, and the installed capacity and sales volume disclosed by the terminal are still not ideal. It is difficult for Sanyuan orders of power to improve. Some Sanyuan manufacturers of power turn to the digital direction, intensifying the competitive pressure in the digital market. The price of SMM ternary material (type 523) is 147000 – 155000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 622) is 165000 – 172 thousand yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 1000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: demand remained strong this week. Due to the increasing concentration of battery enterprises, the premium ability of power lithium iron phosphate enterprises has been weakened. Although the price of phosphoric acid, one of the raw materials, has been rising recently, it is almost difficult for iron lithium material plants to conduct price transmission to the downstream; At the same time, in order to maintain existing customers, some enterprises may choose industrial grade lithium carbonate with lower cost for production, and the price of lithium iron phosphate is under pressure. However, due to the fact that the current production enterprises have made a lot of profits, the price decline is limited. This week, the price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 44000-47000 yuan / ton, and the average price fell by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Future forecast: SMM expects the cobalt price to show a volatile trend in October, with a fluctuation range of 15%. There is downward pressure on the price in the first half of the month. In the second half of the month, due to the approaching monthly purchase signing and building momentum for the signing of orders in the previous year of the nickel cobalt annual meeting, the supply side may have more favorable news, which is more likely to rise. In terms of lithium, the current demand for cathode is relatively stable, and the downward space of lithium salt price is limited. In the short term, manufacturers in Qinghai and Jiangxi are less willing to reduce prices and ship goods, and the lithium salt price may fluctuate slightly at a low level. (source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network)

Think tank circleThe 2019 annual competitive brand list of cathode materials in China's lithium battery industry was released

Recently, the annual competitive brand list of cathode materials in China's lithium battery industry was officially released. Hunan Shanshan Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Ningbo rongbai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Xiamen tungsten industry Co., Ltd., greenmei Co., Ltd., Hunan Changyuan lithium Technology Co., Ltd., Guizhou Zhenhua new materials Co., Ltd., Beijing dangsheng Material Technology Co., Ltd 10 enterprises including Tianjin BAMO Technology Co., Ltd., Peking University Pioneer Technology Industry Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen German Nano Technology Co., Ltd. were listed. The industry list was first released at the ABEC 2014 (2nd battery "Davos") forum. Over the past six years, Shanshan has always maintained its energy competitiveness at № 1, and the other nine positions have been constantly replaced. This year's new face is German nano. In the market, after the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the application of lithium iron phosphate in the field of new energy vehicles has warmed up. However, due to the widespread overcapacity and fierce market competition, the price of lithium iron phosphate is still declining slightly despite the recent rising price of its raw material phosphoric acid.

Article source:Battery net

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