Recently, a new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) (hereinafter referred to as the "plan") drafted under the leadership of the Ministry of industry and information technology flowed out. The plan mentioned that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 20% of the total sales of vehicles that year; By 2030, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 40% of the total sales of vehicles that year. Although the development of the industry in 2019 is lower than expected, the general trend of the development of new energy vehicles is firm and should be optimistic for a long time. Both the double credit policy and the construction of various supporting facilities such as charging piles will bring new benefits and impetus to the future development of new energy vehicles. We believe that as Tesla and other foreign-funded enterprises enter the Chinese market, the year-on-year growth rate of new energy vehicles and power batteries will rebound in 2020. SMM predicts that the output of new energy vehicles in China will be 1.35 million in 2019, an increase of 8% year-on-year. In 2020, China's output of new energy vehicles was 1.8 million, an increase of 33% year-on-year. In 2019, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 64gwh, an increase of 8% year-on-year. In 2020, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 83gwh, an increase of 30% year-on-year. The compound growth rates of the demand for new energy vehicles and power batteries from 2016 to 2020 were 36.7% and 30.8% respectively.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide:Domestic cobalt prices were flat this week. The external price was stable, the domestic transaction was poor, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. The quotation of the large northern factory was firm, and the transaction price was flat. In terms of cobalt hydroxide, some sellers are willing to ship a small number of zero orders, but the downstream is worried that the future price will fall, the bidding is low, the psychological price difference between the two sides is large, and the transaction is difficult. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 285000 – 295000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of SMM cobalt hydroxide is $11-12 / pound, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Cobalt and nickel salts:This week, the price of cobalt sulfate has been significantly loosened. Although the big manufacturers continue to insist on the quotation of 60000 passes, they have encountered a price without a market. Small and medium-sized manufacturers are worried about the aftermarket, and the price of some waste raw materials cobalt sulfate has dropped by 55000 yuan / ton. Cobalt chloride producers adhere to the 70000 yuan / ton level, the current demand is acceptable, the supplier attitude is firm, and the price of cobalt chloride is relatively strong. The price of SMM cobalt sulfate is 56000 – 60000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 71000 – 76000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of SMM battery grade nickel sulfate is 30000-31000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Cobalt tetroxide:4. The price of cobalt is under pressure. The downstream is worried about the future price fall, the purchase intention price is low, the quotation of large manufacturers is strong, and the trading is deadlocked. The cost of cobalt tetrachloride in the cobalt sulfate system has indeed fallen, and the price of cobalt tetrachloride is expected to decline slightly in the future. The current price of SMM cobalt tetroxide is 220000-230000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Ternary precursor:On Wednesday, the trading price of RMB precursor was flat, and the market was dominated by order delivery in the middle of the month, with light trading. With the price of cobalt sulfate under pressure, the price of precursors may fall. The price of SMM ternary precursor (type 523) is 101000 – 106000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (type 622) is 108000 – 112000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium carbonate:The price of lithium carbonate fell slightly this week compared with last week. Due to cost pressure, smelting enterprises' current willingness to reduce prices confronts the fundamentals of market supply and demand. However, as the current market is in the buyer's market, it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce prices and ship goods in order to ensure customer resources. In the case of sufficient supply in the market, buyers are unwilling to take over high priced products, and it is difficult to raise the price of industrial lithium carbonate. The price of SMM battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 58000-61000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of SMM industrial zero grade lithium carbonate this week was 48000-52000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 0500 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Lithium hydroxide:The price of lithium hydroxide this week was flat compared with last week. At present, the domestic high nickel market is developing steadily, and the demand for lithium hydroxide has not significantly improved. Transactions are only concentrated in a few leading manufacturers. The large lithium hydroxide factory has a stable customer base, and the production line is close to full production. Affected by weak demand and rapid price decline, the operating rate of some small and medium-sized enterprises fell. This week, the price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 61000-66000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium cobaltate:The price of lithium cobalt oxide continued to rise. This week, some small and medium-sized lithium cobalt battery plants continued to make sporadic orders, and the high quotation of manufacturers was implemented. The price of smm4.35v lithium cobaltate is RMB 242000-252000 / ton, with an average price increase of RMB 7000 / ton compared with last week.

Ternary material:On Wednesday, the yuan material market maintained the state of last week, the power market was still quiet, and the demand of the digital market was stable. Some manufacturers said that due to the poor sales of terminal new energy vehicles, orders may continue to decrease in the fourth quarter. The price of SMM ternary material (type 523) is 147000 – 155000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 622) is 165000 – 172000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium iron phosphate:The price of lithium iron phosphate fell this week. At present, the pricing mode of lithium iron phosphate material factory is in a translucent state, and the downstream battery enterprises have strong control over the material price under the pressure of cost reduction. Although the demand for lithium iron phosphate materials has been strong since the fourth quarter, the price of lithium iron phosphate has declined slightly with the continuous decline in the price of upstream lithium carbonate and the decline in production costs after the resumption of operating rates of enterprises. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) this week was 42500-45500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 0500 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Lithium manganate:The price of lithium manganate this week was flat compared with last week. At present, the supply market of lithium manganate is highly competitive. Under the condition of stable demand, the price of lithium manganate continues to be under pressure due to the decline in the price of upstream raw materials. This week, the price of SMM lithium manganate (capacity type) is 26000-32000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. This week, the price of SMM lithium manganate (power type) is 43000-45000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Future forecast:SMM maintained its previous view, and cobalt prices showed a volatile trend before the year. In terms of lithium, with the extension of mining projects, the process of accumulating ore reserves slows down, and the historical ore inventory will gradually be digested by smelting products. It is expected that the lithium price will not improve during the year.

Article source:Battery net