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[original] 2019 senior engineering annual meeting focus (15): electrolyte battlefield "the leftover is the king"


After the price plunge in the previous two years, the electrolyte market rebounded slightly in 2019, with an increase in both price and shipment.

A person in the electrolyte industry said that the current rise in electrolyte prices has basically capped and stabilized. The data shows that in the third quarter of 2019, the price of power electrolyte was 42000 yuan / ton, and the price of digital electrolyte was 48000 yuan / ton.

It is understood that in the first half of 2018, when the electrolyte price war was the most intense, some enterprises offered as low as 26000-28000 yuan / ton.

On the reasons for the rise in electrolyte prices,First, in August last year, Shandong Haike was flooded and shidashenghua stopped production for maintenance, and 80% of the production capacity of the DMC market was lost; After the water explosion accident in February this year, the supply of EC solvent decreased by nearly 30%, so the prices of DMC and EC solvents increased one after another.

Second, after the subsidy declines, the lithium iron phosphate battery gradually warms up, the demand for relevant solvents also increases, and the market demand for electrolyte under conduction will also increase.

However, the above-mentioned person also said that although the electrolyte market has temporarily stabilized, it can not escape the impact of the price reduction pressure of the entire industrial chain. In fact, many small and medium-sized electrolyte enterprises are also suffering. In the process of sharp price fluctuations and raw material shortages, many small and medium-sized enterprises in the electrolyte industry chain have been impacted, prompting the market to move closer to leading enterprises.

According to GGII data, the market share of the top five electrolyte enterprises in 2018 has reached more than 65%, with Tianci materials, xinzhoubang and Cathay Pacific in the forefront.

In terms of shipments,According to GGII data, the total domestic electrolyte shipments from January to September were 134790 tons, including 41020 tons of digital electrolyte, 81050 tons of power electrolyte and 12720 tons of energy storage. Compared with China's electrolyte shipments of 140000 tons in 2018, it can be predicted that this year's electrolyte shipments will achieve year-on-year growth.

Both price and shipment volume have increased, which can be reflected in the financial statements of electrolyte head enterprises.

Tianci materials (002709) had a revenue of 746 million yuan in the third quarter of 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 34.44%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 39.49 million yuan, an increase of 48.81% year-on-year.

The total revenue of new Zebang (30003) in the first three quarters was 1.697 billion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year; The net profit was 239 million yuan, an increase of 15% year-on-year.

Secondly, as a supplier of electrolyte solvents, it also benefits a lot, just like shidashenghua. From January to September, Shi dashenghua (603026) made a net profit of 303million yuan, an increase of 78.2% year-on-year. The production and sales of dimethyl carbonate series were 334200 tons and 204600 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.4% and 13.8% respectively.

Large enterprises are busy with layout, while small enterprises are worried about survival.

As a big player in the electrolyte industry said, large enterprises will not panic in the face of challenges such as cost and price competition because of their early layout in terms of product quality and customer system, and can stabilize and actively layout in the face of the storm.

First of all, in dealing with the price fluctuation of key raw materials, leading electrolyte enterprises choose to implement strategic procurement from domestic and foreign bulk raw material suppliers, sign annual long purchase orders, reduce procurement costs and ensure stable supply, and adjust raw material reserves in time according to price changes.

Tianci materials, xinzhoubang, Cathay Pacific Huarong and other electrolyte manufacturers have established cooperative relations with a large domestic solvent company.

Secondly, in order to closely integrate with the head battery enterprises and keep up with the global arms race, electrolyte giants are also actively exploring overseas markets.

Xinzhoubang said that the company's electrolyte capacity is limited and is expected to be far from meeting the needs of customers for capacity expansion. Therefore, on the one hand, investing and setting up factories in Poland, on the other hand, acquiring BASF's electrolyte business in Europe and the United States will directly drive the company's overseas business market share.

Tianci materials recently issued two announcements, saying that it would set up subsidiaries in South Korea and the Czech Republic to carry out technical research and market development of electrolyte and grasp the South Korean and European markets.

In the face of sudden changes in the market, some small and medium-sized enterprises, such as new companies or inter-bank enterprises, have low sensitivity to the market direction, and will be at a loss in the face of market competition, policy changes, customer arrears, gambling failure and other risks.

Just like Tianji (002759), a listed company mainly engaged in household appliances, since its acquisition of lithium hexafluorophosphate supplier Xintai materials in 2016, the latter's performance has not reached the standard. After two consecutive years of impairment provision in 2017 and 2018, the book balance of goodwill reached 1.78 billion yuan, and the performance of Tianji fell in 2017, 2018 and the first half of this year.

Even if the market is highly concentrated, there will always be people who want to squeeze again. The electrolyte market in 2019 also attracted some "newcomers".

In March, the leading enterprise of lithium hexafluorophosphate, duofluoro, plans to invest 1billion yuan to build a 50000 ton / year electrolyte project in an attempt to take a share and occupy the natural advantages of raw materials. How useful will it be?

The national team is not willing to be outdone. In August, the annual output of 50000 tons of lithium battery electrolyte project of Sinochem Lantian under the chemical business department of Sinochem Group started, with an investment of more than 500 million yuan. Are "guozitou" enterprises more competitive?

However, industry insiders believe that the current domestic electrolyte market pattern is basically stable, and the advantage of new enterprises is the existing industrial chain customer base, but it is not easy to shake the pattern. New enterprises must identify customer needs and develop products with higher circulation and high efficiency.

In general, there are three major trends in the electrolyte market in the future:

➤ in the market, the reshuffle has intensified, the industry is highly centralized, small and medium-sized enterprises have been eliminated, and the top enterprises are always strong;

➤ in terms of technology, the high-end power battery has driven the increase in the proportion of electrolyte in ternary system and high-voltage system, and the demand for new functional products has increased.

➤ in terms of layout, domestic electrolyte manufacturers have scale and cost advantages, and the pace of "going to sea" has accelerated.

Enterprises that can't bear the pain quit, and enterprises that try new things come in. The strong will always be strong. Who will come to the end? How to deal with the changes in the upstream and downstream markets and how to layout in order to enhance the ability to "survive the winter" are the problems faced by the entire electrolyte market.

When it is warm and cold, it is most difficult to rest. How will the electrolyte, which is affected by the price of solvents, and the pressure conduction of power battery price reduction, fluctuate in 2020?

December 16-18, by2019 high tech lithium battery & electric vehicle annual conference named by Li YuanhengThe theme of the annual meeting will be "the darkest hour and great future of global electrification". 500 upstream and downstream enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain and 800 senior enterprises will gather in Shenzhen.

At that time, according to the development trend of the electrolyte market, the leaders of the segment industry will also share their layout rhythm and market research and judgment of the electrolyte enterprises.

Article source:High tech lithium power grid

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