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[cathode material weekly] 2019 cobalt price review and 2020 price forecast! In 2019, the price of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend as a whole


裕能新能源磷酸铁锂总年产能约3万吨 三元电池材料正在客户认证

[interaction] the total annual capacity of Yuneng new energy lithium iron phosphate is about 30000 tons, and the ternary battery material is being certified by customers

Recently, Xiangtan Dianhua (002125) said in an interactive exchange with investors that Yuneng new energy is a mixed ownership enterprise jointly invested by the company and the technology party, the capital party and the controlling shareholders, with the company accounting for 16.07%. Yuneng new energy lithium iron phosphate products are of excellent quality and recognized by industry benchmark enterprises; Nickel cobalt manganese ternary battery materials are also being actively certified by customers.

In the first half of 2019, Yuneng new energy achieved an operating revenue of 212671600 yuan and a net profit of 34.2294 million yuan. The main customers are Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen BYD Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. Yuneng new energy has two production bases, located in Xiangtan, Hunan Province and Jingxi, Guangxi Province. After the Guangxi Jingxi lithium iron phosphate production line project was officially put into operation in the second half of 2019, the total annual production capacity of Yuneng new energy lithium iron phosphate products was about 30000 tons. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

2019年大事件下的钴市行情 钴价始终难以大幅反弹

[market] cobalt Market under the major events in 2019, cobalt prices have always been difficult to rebound significantly

According to the data test of the business agency, although the cobalt Market in 2019 was not as hot as that in 17 and 18 years, it was still a sharp rise and fall. Generally speaking, the price trend of cobalt Market in 2019 shows such a trend, which is mainly determined by two major events: the decline of subsidies in 2019 and the shutdown of Glencore cobalt mine.

Summary and future forecast: the sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles has led to the slowdown in the development of new energy vehicles, the rising and bearish demand in the future cobalt market, and the accumulation of moisture in the early cobalt price are all the reasons for the sharp decline in cobalt prices in 2019. But the decline of new energy vehicle subsidies is definitely the most important and critical fuse among the many reasons. The shutdown of Glencore cobalt mine is a shot in the arm in the cobalt market. The rebound in cobalt prices since August was stimulated by this news. However, with the passage of time, the sales volume of new energy vehicles fell far faster than the market expectation. The aftermarket demand of cobalt market was not optimistic, and the rebound of cobalt price was blocked and began to decline. At the same time, due to the increase of cobalt ore cost, the decline of cobalt price was small, and the cobalt price remained at a relatively high level until the shutdown of Glencore cobalt ore was realized. After the shutdown of Glencore cobalt mine, the cobalt price once rose. However, due to the approaching of the new year, cobalt enterprises often ship at low prices in order to alleviate the financial pressure, which makes it difficult for the cobalt price to rebound significantly. The time comes to 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are gradually stable, 5g mobile phones may usher in a wave of phone changes, and the future demand of cobalt market is expected to increase; In terms of supply, Glencore's Cobalt Mine shutdown has been realized, and the supply of cobalt mine is bound to be reduced, and the relationship between supply and demand of cobalt will be changed to a certain extent. 2020 is expected to be a year of stable development of cobalt, and the price of cobalt is expected to rise. At the same time, investment is cautious and market liquidity is reduced. It is difficult for the cobalt market to reproduce the soaring market of 17 years. Overall, the cobalt market is expected to rise slightly and steadily in 2020. (source: Business Club)

[order] 83.66 million yuan! Rongjie signed the purchase and sale agreement of lithium concentrate of Weihua Co., Ltd

On the evening of December 25, Rongjie (002192) announced that recently, the company signed a spodumene concentrate purchase and sales agreement and a supplementary agreement with Guangdong Weihua Co., Ltd. to sell lithium concentrate products to the latter. The transaction object of the contract was methyl carbamate lithium concentrate, and the contract involved an amount of 83.66 million yuan.

According to public information, Rongjie mainly takes the lithium battery material industry chain as the main body, and operates businesses related to the new energy material industry, including lithium mining and beneficiation, lithium salt and deep processing, lithium battery equipment, etc. Rongda lithium, a subsidiary of its company, is specifically engaged in the mining and beneficiation business of Kangding methylka spodumene mine. It holds the mining certificate of No. 134 vein of Kangding methylka spodumene mine, which is located in the second largest methylka spodumene mining area in the world and the largest in Asia. The mine has a reserve of 28.995 million tons, the mining scale on the certificate is 1.05 million tons / year, the mining area is 1.14 square kilometers, and the average grade is 1.42%. It is fully open-pit mining, and now it is the best lithium mine resource in China.

In June this year, Rongda lithium mine officially resumed production. According to Lu Bin, general manager of Rongda lithium, after being put into operation, it is expected to produce about 30000 tons of lithium concentrate this year; In the full production year, about 70000-80000 tons of lithium concentrate will be produced; After the expansion of lithium mining and beneficiation to 1.05 million tons / year, it is expected to produce about 200000 tons / year of concentrate. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)


[market] annual analysis of lithium carbonate price trend in 2019: the overall trend is downward

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of lithium carbonate showed a downward trend in 2019 as a whole. Although prices fell in the first half of the year, the decline was slightly flat. The market price of lithium carbonate fell sharply in the second half of the year, and there was no positive phenomenon until the end of the year. On December 27, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 44400 yuan / ton, down 39.51% from 73400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1). On December 27, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 51000 yuan / ton, down 38.7% from 83200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1).

Future forecast: the price of lithium carbonate may be described as falling into a trough in 2019. As the downstream market is shrouded in pessimistic expectations, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate is relatively unbalanced, the price of lithium carbonate is still low, and the supply and demand pattern of the spot market is still depressed. Near the end of the year, with the further production reduction of downstream material plants in the fourth quarter, it is difficult for smelters to ship even if the price is reduced. Enterprises may begin to gradually reduce production to reduce inventory levels, and the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate will be further pressured. Due to the early arrival of the Spring Festival holiday in 2020, the low price shock of lithium carbonate will continue, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain low in the first quarter of 2020. (source: Business Club)

[Focus] 2019 cobalt price review and 2020 price forecast

The soaring price of cobalt in 2016 and 2017 and the uncertainty of its supply attracted a lot of investment and resource development. In 2018, the expectation of cobalt oversupply gradually fermented, and most domestic smelters chose to refuse and wait-and-see for the tough pricing model of overseas mines. In 2019, domestic smelters still take zero orders and domestic inventory as the main raw material procurement methods.

In the first quarter of 2019, the quotation of foreign media accelerated to decline, and the domestic speculative market was also in high spirits. Short selling was strong. Both domestic and foreign prices fell, and the export window was temporarily opened. Domestic consumption was insufficient, and transactions were very limited. Producers were mainly active in the export market. Although at the end of April, there was a low inventory replenishment market in the downstream to support the price, the cobalt price rebounded briefly, and the import window was temporarily opened, the actual transaction with price but no market was poor. Then, at the end of the quarter, the domestic speculative market led the decline, the spot market also followed the decline pessimistically, and the foreign media began to weaken to follow up the domestic market. In the third quarter, the market rose again, just in need of replenishment logic, foreign media pulled up, and domestic followed up. After the return of the National Day holiday, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was heavy, the willingness to purchase was poor, the speculative market accelerated its decline, superimposed on the influx of Canadian cobalt into the market to impact the supply, and the spot market gradually declined. In November, cobalt salt products were the first to lead the decline in the case of weak rigid demand. The premium of electrolytic cobalt price to salt products continued to exist, the external market gradually moved closer to the domestic price, and the export window briefly opened and then closed with the repair of the price difference.

Based on the fundamental judgment of China's supply and demand balance from 2020 to 2022, and the consideration and evaluation of the above three factors, SMM predicts that the annual average price of electrolytic cobalt in 2020 is about 290000 yuan / ton, and the average prices of cobalt trioxide, cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride in 2020 are 220000 yuan / ton, 53000 yuan / ton and 65000 yuan / ton respectively. (source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network)

[interaction] the production capacity of cobalt trioxide in Yicheng, Hunan Province is about 3000 tons / year, and it is expected to expand to 8000 tons / year next year

On December 29, Hezong Technology (300477) said in an interactive exchange with investors that at present, Hunan Yacheng, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Qinghai Taifeng Xianxian lithium energy technology Co., Ltd., and the estimated purchase volume in 2020 is about 11800 tons of iron phosphate; And signed an 8500 ton framework agreement with Shenzhen beiteri Nano Technology Co., Ltd. We are also working closely with some other advanced enterprises in the industry. Several industry customers who are currently being certified have entered the pilot stage, and it is expected that batch supply will be achieved in the second half of 2020.

Up to now, the production capacity of cobalt trioxide and cobalt hydroxide in Yicheng, Hunan Province is about 3000 tons / year and 1000 tons / year, basically at full capacity. Due to the strong demand of customers in the downstream industry, the production of cobalt tetroxide and cobalt hydroxide products is being expanded. It is expected that the production of cobalt tetroxide will be expanded to 8000 tons / year next year; The production of cobalt hydroxide is expanded to 1800 tons / year.

The phase I project of Hunan Yacheng iron phosphate automation intelligent factory has been put into operation on December 21, and will be put into mass production. In 2020, the effective capacity will be expanded to 35000 tons / year. Hunan Yacheng will become the largest and most complete iron phosphate supplier in the industry. Hunan Yacheng iron phosphate automation intelligent factory is located in the national Ningxiang technology development zone. The project covers an area of 163 mu, with a total design annual capacity of 50000 tons. The progress of phase II expansion mainly depends on the market situation. If the market demand increases significantly, the release of phase II production capacity can be realized by completing the installation of equipment in the reserved workshop. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

Think tank circleSome cathode material manufacturers turn to the digital market

Affected by the sluggish demand of the battery market, the operating rate of power battery enterprises further decreased, but the order volume of digital battery factory increased due to the stocking at the end of the year. According to the institutional analysis, some cathode material manufacturers have shifted from the power market to the digital market, which also intensifies the competitive pressure in the digital market. Due to the fierce competition, the prices of enterprises vary greatly.

Article source:Battery net

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