[industry] domestic cobalt raw material inventory is low, and the short-term spot price is strong

Since the middle and late October, the average price of cobalt intermediates has generally shown an upward trend. As of December 9, the average price of cobalt intermediates was $12.25 / pound, a record high, up $4.65 / pound from the lowest level since the beginning of the year.

SMM believes that the global supply of cobalt intermediates is relatively concentrated. In 2020, it is expected that nearly 64% of the supply of raw cobalt raw materials will come from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Affected by the epidemic this year, the supply and logistics of cobalt intermediates have been blocked, and the recovery is not ideal. SMM expects the total global supply of cobalt raw materials to be 161500 tons of metal tons in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 1%.

At present, the spot inventory of cobalt intermediates in China is low. According to incomplete statistics, SMM's domestic cobalt raw material balance shows that the import of cobalt steamed buns as raw materials for domestic smelting and processing enterprises is not considered. It is expected that 1000 tons of domestic cobalt raw materials will be removed from the warehouse from January to December this year; Considering the import volume of unwrought cobalt from Australia, Canada and Madagascar, the expected import volume from January to December this year is about 3000 metal tons. Therefore, the overall domestic inventory of cobalt raw materials is low, supporting the strong price of cobalt intermediate products in the short term. (source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network)

Figure / Huayou cobalt industry

[company] "cobalt value" is more predictable! Huayou cobalt industry has set a new goal: launch the "330 scientific research plan"

Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the impact of the COVID-19, Huayou cobalt industry has seized the opportunity to achieve contrarian growth in business performance by virtue of the improved layout of the whole industrial chain and scientific and technological innovation. In the first three quarters of this year, the operating revenue was 14.839 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year; The net profit was 672million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 565%. At the same time, new breakthroughs have been made in the production and marketing of leading products such as cobalt, precursor and nickel sulfate, demonstrating the endurance and determination of large enterprises to meet difficulties and focus on their main businesses.

When the new development pattern of domestic and international double circulation accelerates, Huayou cobalt industry increases the construction of scientific research teams and investment in research and development facilities, and starts the "330 scientific research plan" within the enterprise, forming a product development sequence of mass production, development and reserve generation, and taking solid steps towards high-tech and high-quality development. (source: Zhejiang News)

[acquisition] Luoyang molybdenum industry purchased 95% equity of kisanfu copper cobalt mine with us $550 million, with a resource of 365 million tons

On December 13, Luoyang molybdenum industry (603993) announced, Natural resource elite Investment Limited (hereinafter referred to as "nreit"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of CMOC Limited (Chinese name "Luoyang molybdenum Holdings Co., Ltd", hereinafter referred to as "lomo Holdings"), plans to purchase its Bermuda subsidiaries Jenny East Holdings Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jenny East") and kisanfu Holdings Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "FCX") from Freeport McMoRan Inc. (Delaware) (hereinafter referred to as "FCX") "Kisanfu"), thereby indirectly acquiring 95% of the shares of Phelps Dodge Congo s.a.r.l. (hereinafter referred to as "PDC") and 95% of the equity of kisanfu copper cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Kisanfu has a total resource of about 365 million tons of ore, the average grade of copper is about 1.72%, and the copper metal is about 6.28 million tons; The average grade of cobalt is about 0.85%, and the content of cobalt metal is about 3.1 million tons. The mine is currently undeveloped, and can be called the largest undeveloped cobalt mine in the DRC and even in the world. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

[company] Tianqi lithium's debt crisis is turning around: its subsidiary, tlea, plans to introduce us $1.4 billion of war investment

On the evening of December 8, Tianqi lithium announced that the wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, tlea, plans to introduce strategic investor Igo Limited (hereinafter referred to as "Igo") in the form of capital increase and share expansion. Igo is a leading mining and exploration company with high-quality nickel, copper and cobalt assets in Western Australia.

According to the announcement, Igo lithium holdings Pty Ltd (hereinafter referred to as "investor"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Igo, plans to contribute US $1.4 billion in cash to subscribe to the newly increased registered capital of tlea of US $304 million. After the capital increase is completed, Qi lithium holds 51% of the registered capital of tlea, and investors hold 49% of the registered capital of tlea. The premium of US $1.096 billion over the corresponding amount of the registered capital of tlea is included in this transaction. (source: battery bairenhui battery network)

[analysis] lithium carbonate market price bottomed out and rebounded, boosted by three factors

After nearly three years of continuous decline, the domestic lithium carbonate market began to rebound from the bottom, especially since November. The average price in early November has risen from 39500 yuan (ton price, the same below) to 44800 yuan in early December, an increase of 13.4%. The excessive decline in the early stage, the introduction of favorable policies and the push up of raw material prices are the three driving factors for the recent bottom recovery of lithium carbonate prices.

According to the statistics of Guotai Junan Securities, only 4 of the 7 lithium mines in Australia are currently in normal production, and the lithium concentrate flowing into the market is far from meeting the market demand. Therefore, it is inevitable that the price of lithium concentrate will rise, which will also drive the lithium carbonate market higher. Pacific Securities predicts that the price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate will return to more than 50000 yuan again next year. (source: China Chemical News)

[market] lithium prices continued to rise sharply

Ternary materials: the price of ternary materials rose last Wednesday. Last week, the price of carbon continued to increase, the price of precursors was flat, the profit margin of 5-series ternary material products was low, and the transaction price basically increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of lithium salt in the future will still drive the price of materials to gradually increase. The profit margin of series 6 products is large, and the transmission of downstream battery enterprises is slow. At present, the price is still stable. Last week, the price of SMM ternary material (type 523) was 112500-123500 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 02500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 622) is 135000-145500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 811) is 155500-17000 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: the price of lithium iron phosphate was flat last week. In the power market, the price of industrial carbon continues to rise, and the cost pressure of iron and lithium enterprises continues to increase. Close to the end of the year, the downstream has low acceptance of the price rise, and the price rise of iron and lithium still needs to be gradually transmitted. Last week, the price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33500-36000 yuan / ton, and the average price was flat compared with last week. The price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 27500-29500 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Future forecast: in terms of cobalt, the prices of electrolytic cobalt and cobalt powder are weak, the demand for zero order purchase is low, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic cobalt is under pressure. The demand for battery materials is good, and the quotations of a few cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride suppliers are increased, which makes it difficult to conduct. In the off-season, the prices of cobalt tetroxide and lithium cobaltate fell slightly. In terms of lithium, lithium prices continued to rise sharply, mainly due to the sharp rise in demand for downstream materials. In December, some lithium salt plants suspended signing orders, and there were few spot resources. It is expected that the small batch transaction price of small and medium-sized material plants may reach 50000 yuan / ton. (source: Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network)

[think tank circle]Lithium carbonate prices remain strong

At present, the supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the upstream enterprises increase the ex factory quotation. According to the data released by Longzhong information on Friday, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate rose to 47250 yuan / ton, up 15.95% from the beginning of November.

CITIC Securities pointed out that in November, the output and installed capacity of power batteries continued to maintain a substantial growth, the demand side continued to strengthen, the price of lithium carbonate remained strong, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry was prominent, and the price may quickly reach 50000 yuan / ton. Cobalt price is affected by the increase in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate, and the driving force of price rise is weaker than lithium. The continuous weakness of demand for electric cobalt also suppresses the price of cobalt. The rapid rise in lithium prices has brought about the repair of corporate profits, and also accelerated the process of introducing downstream high-quality customers into domestic lithium salt enterprises.
Article source:Battery net