Battery and downstream terminal market: according to SMM new energy database, the production of new energy vehicles in January was 48000, a year-on-year decrease of 52.3%, of which 43000 were new energy passenger vehicles, accounting for 88%, 2700 were new energy passenger vehicles, accounting for 5.6%, and 3100 were new energy special vehicles, accounting for 6.4%. The installed capacity of power battery in January was 2.3gwh, a year-on-year decrease of 53.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary battery is 1.58gwh, accounting for 68.2%, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 0.72gwh, accounting for 31.2%. The battery factory started operation this week, but due to the epidemic, the government has strict control over the factory and workers, and the operating rate cannot be fully recovered for the time being. At present, the production and transportation of orders made before the year are maintained, and new transactions are expected by the end of February. This week, the news that Tesla may use the lithium iron phosphate battery of Ningde era has been hotly discussed. SMM believes that this news has little impact on the demand for upstream cobalt raw materials. As for the use trend of batteries in the whole market, considering the technical ceiling of iron lithium and high nickel ternary, SMM still believes that ternary batteries will be the mainstream trend of new energy vehicles in the next three years.

Electrolytic cobalt and cobalt hydroxide: the price of electrolytic cobalt rose slightly this week. The domestic electric cobalt market has sporadic transactions, with small and medium-sized manufacturers offering a small number of transactions, and some large manufacturers have no quotation for the time being. In terms of cobalt hydroxide, some manufacturers added intermediate purchase plans this week, and the transaction price increased slightly due to the rise in foreign media quotation after the holiday. The price of SMM electrolytic cobalt is 275-28000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 1500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM cobalt hydroxide is 9.6-10.4 dollars / pound, with an average price increase of 0.2 dollars / pound compared with last week.

Cobalt salt and nickel salt: cobalt salt prices rose this week. Cobalt salt transactions this week increased compared with last week. Except for Hubei Province, almost all cobalt salt plants have been started, and some of them are affected by the isolation of employees from other provinces or the shortage of raw materials, so the operation rate is low. Large downstream factories either purchased due to insufficient raw material reserves, or prepared to purchase in March due to rising prices, and the transaction price continued to rise this week. Next week, if the problems of raw material import and commencement are solved or the logistics is further restored, the cobalt salt supply will ease slightly. However, considering the time required for commencement and production, the structural shortage pattern will remain next week, and the cobalt salt price is expected to remain strong in the short term. The price of SMM cobalt sulfate is 56000-59000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 22500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The current price of SMM cobalt chloride is 67000-69000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 25000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM battery grade nickel sulfate is 24500-25000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Cobalt tetroxide: cobalt prices rose on Thursday. The rise in the price of cobalt salt led to an increase in the cost of cobalt tetroxide, and cobalt tetroxide manufacturers continued to raise their quotations last week. Some large lithium cobalt plants had long orders before the production Festival, and the purchase of raw materials was insufficient, and a small amount of purchases were concluded. The current price of SMM Co3O4 is 205000-215000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 5000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Ternary precursor: on Wednesday, the price of Yuan precursor continued to rise due to the influence of upstream cobalt salt. This week, except for enterprises in Hubei Province, almost all of them started work. At present, because the factory can only start some production lines, the operating rate is expected to remain low until the end of the month. This week, some big manufacturers of ternary materials are in short supply of inventory and purchase precursors at high prices. However, affected by the sluggish downstream demand, the purchase volume is low. The price of conventional power 523 is also controlled within 90000, which is significantly lower than the quotation of precursor enterprises. The price of digital 523 also keeps between 82000-85000 yuan / ton with the increase of raw material price. The price of SMM ternary precursor (type 523) is 86000-89000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 5000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM ternary precursor (type 622) is 8800-92000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 25000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Lithium carbonate: lithium carbonate prices were flat this week. Affected by the logistics obstruction after the year, some smelters intend to raise prices this week, but the current downstream operating rate recovers slowly, the purchase demand is limited, and the acceptance of lithium salt price increase is low. The price of SMM battery grade lithium carbonate this week was 47500-50500 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of SMM industrial zero grade lithium carbonate this week was 37000-40500 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium hydroxide: the price of lithium hydroxide was flat this week. At present, the shipments of large lithium hydroxide manufacturers are stable, and the transactions of small and medium-sized manufacturers are difficult. It is expected that the high nickel material factory will have a new round of procurement plan next week, and the power of lithium hydroxide price hike is still on. The price of SMM battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) this week was 52000-58000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium cobaltate: lithium cobaltate prices rose this week. The lithium cobaltate industry has a high degree of concentration. As of this week, almost all construction has been started, and a small number of construction has been delayed due to downstream demand or the isolation of employees from other provinces. There are few inquiries from downstream battery manufacturers. Due to the increased purchase demand of some large manufacturers due to long-term order production, and also due to the rise in raw material prices, the transaction price of lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of smm4.35v lithium cobaltate is 205000-225000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 10000 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Ternary material: the price of Yuan materials rose this Wednesday. There are still some material factories that did not start operation this week. Due to the low operating rate of downstream battery factories, the production situation of material factories is poor. This week, the order production before the year will continue to be maintained. Except for the enterprises that did not stop production during the Spring Festival, the raw material inventory is sufficient and the purchase demand is weak. Logistics is still limited this week, affecting order distribution in February, with sporadic trading volume. Affected by upstream raw materials, prices also rose slightly. The price of SMM ternary material (type 523) is 127000-139000 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 1500 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price of SMM ternary material (type 622) is 145000-153000 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium iron phosphate: the price of lithium iron phosphate was flat this week. This week, except for the large iron lithium plant in Hubei, other manufacturers started construction in succession. At present, only the large downstream battery plants have long-term order demand, and there are few downstream zero orders. Although there is good news for iron lithium this week, the price is not affected. It is expected that the order volume will return to normal after other battery factories gradually recover at the end of the month. This week, the price of SMM lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 39000-42500 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Lithium manganate: the price of lithium manganate was flat this week. Lithium manganate enterprises had difficulties in resuming work this week, which was mainly affected by the low operating rate of downstream battery plants. Some enterprises chose to delay starting work and wait for downstream demand to recover. This week, the logistics obstacles remain, the logistics application outside the province is difficult, and the logistics fee is doubled, which makes it difficult to deliver. The trading volume is sporadic this week, and the price remains unchanged. This week, the price of SMM lithium manganate (capacity type) was 22000-31000 yuan / ton, and the average price was flat compared with last week. The price of SMM lithium manganate (power type) this week was 34500-36500 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week.

Aftermarket forecast: with the resumption of some industrial chain enterprises this week, market transactions increased. The transaction price of cobalt salt increased due to the reserve of downstream raw materials and bullish expectations; Although the upstream of lithium carbonate is willing to adjust the price, the downstream acceptance is limited. SMM predicts that in the short term, the structural shortage of cobalt salt is still on, and there may be room for price increase; However, with the recovery of logistics in the future and the smooth supply, the prices of cobalt and lithium will return to the fundamental level.

Article source:Battery net