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[original] [senior engineer research] lithium battery industry chain epidemic impact depth "scan"


The sudden COVID-19 before the Spring Festival in 2020 disrupted the pace of economic life in the whole country. The whole country worked together to fight the epidemic. In order to avoid large-scale population mobility and aggregation, prevention and control measures such as home isolation and extending the Spring Festival holiday were taken. Affected by this, China's lithium battery industry chain has also been directly affected.

Since February 2, Gaogong lithium battery has made continuous research on the resumption of work and the impact of the epidemic of upstream and downstream enterprises in the lithium battery industry chain, involving upstream raw materials, equipment, batteries, electric motor control, vehicle and other upstream and downstream industry chainsMore than 150Sample enterprises.

Among the sample enterprises, vehicle enterprises accounted for 12%, battery enterprises 35%, equipment enterprises 33% and material enterprises 20%.According to the statistics of output value, enterprises with annual sales of more than 2billion Yuan account for 43.8%, enterprises with annual sales of between 500-2billion Yuan account for 37.4%, and enterprises with annual sales of less than 500 million yuan account for 18.8%.

Investigate problems involved in EnterprisesProgress of resumption of work, return of employees, capacity recovery, upstream supply chain support, downstream customers and market demand, exports, short-term and medium-term and long-term impact of the epidemicAnd so on. Based on the survey, the views of Gaogong lithium battery are as follows:

On the whole,The epidemic has affected the upstream, middle and downstream industrial chains to varying degrees. Among them, the two major links of complete vehicles and power batteries are the most obvious and direct. The production and sales of new energy vehicles fell 52% year-on-year in January, and the decline is expected to be more obvious in February. Affected by this, the demand for vehicle power batteries also shrank significantly. The impact is expected to last from February to March. At the same time, we are cautiously optimistic about the market trend of new energy vehicles in 2020 after the epidemic.

Correspondingly, due to the rigid market demand, digital, electric tools, electric bicycles and other fields are less affected. From January to February, the market itself was at a low ebb, and the operating rate of battery enterprises was not high. With the resumption of work and orderly start, the market will maintain a general trend of steady growth.

Lithium battery equipment,Affected by the return of employees and the supply chain, the delivery of orders has been delayed in the short term. In terms of market demand, the capacity expansion and new projects of battery enterprises will be affected in the short term. In the medium and long term, the general trend of long-term improvement in the new energy vehicle and power battery industry will not change, and the epidemic will not have a major impact on the equipment demand industry.

Lithium battery materials,The export of lithium battery materials in China accounts for more than 70% of the global lithium battery materials. Affected by the epidemic, the short-term delivery of export orders for precursors, positive and negative electrodes, diaphragms, electrolytes and so on has been affected.

◆ as the epidemic continues, the capital chain is extremely critical for lithium battery enterprises. It can be predicted that some small and medium-sized enterprises in the industrial chain will face bankruptcy risk in the first quarter because of capital chain problems. In the medium and long term, the epidemic will promote the in-depth reshuffle of the industry more quickly, and the market concentration of each segment will become higher and higher.

New energy vehicle enterprises: sales volume fell sharply, and the situation in 2020 is not optimistic

◆ affected by the epidemic, the sales of traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles have declined significantly. The sales of new energy vehicles fell by more than 50% in January, and the decline in February is expected to exceed 70%. The whole year will not be optimistic.

◆ due to the complexity of the supply chain, traditional car enterprises still face certain problems in resuming production and work. The resumption rate of joint venture car enterprises and independent brands is currently less than half. The same is true of the resumption of work of new energy vehicle enterprises. Due to the widespread use of order production by car enterprises, affected by the shrinking demand of downstream, the current production line operating rate is still not high.

◆ affected by the epidemic, new power auto enterprises are facing a more difficult survival dilemma, capital chain, production resumption, product sales and a series of other problems. Therefore, they are also significantly more proactive in product sales, including Weima, Xiaopeng, and Weilai, who are actively trying online promotion, online sales and other methods of product marketing, and are also actively seeking changes in sales strategies.

◆ according to the survey data, more than 90% of the car companies and industrial chain enterprises believe that the epidemic will have an impact on the new energy vehicle market for 3-6 months. The main logic behind it is that the decline of traditional vehicles is obvious, and the policy may give more consumer support in the traditional fuel vehicle market, thereby squeezing the new energy vehicle market. At the same time, the macroeconomic downturn, consumers will be more cautious in buying cars.

◆ after the epidemic, policy stimulus to the economy will appear through supporting infrastructure, which will make the use of new energy vehicles more convenient. At the same time, after the epidemic, new marketing methods such as online car sales will be accelerated to be accepted by the consumer market, which will be conducive to the product sales and promotion of some new power car enterprises.

Impact of lithium battery enterprises: the demand for automotive power batteries has decreased significantly, and the impact of digital and small power is small

◆ affected by the epidemic, the resumption of work of lithium battery enterprises is generally delayed, and more than 80% of enterprises have resumed work after February 17. However, affected by the arrival of employees, the supply of upstream supply chain, and the poor logistics, the resumption rate of production lines is generally less than 50%. Some enterprises in the mainland are not affected by the return of employees, and the resumption rate is relatively high.

◆ in terms of downstream demand impact, digital and small power batteries are less affected, and the demand has not changed much. However, the field of vehicle power batteries has been greatly affected by the decline in vehicle sales. According to the feedback of head battery enterprises, the demand from vehicle enterprises has declined significantly, with a decline of more than 50%.

◆ Gaogong lithium battery learned that some production lines of head digital enterprises are operating during the Spring Festival holiday, which is affected by the epidemic, the commencement of upstream material supply chain and logistics. Orders cannot be delivered normally, which will be affected in a short term.

◆ head power battery enterprises also have some production lines in operation during the Spring Festival. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the demand of downstream car enterprises slowed down. At the same time, due to the previous supply chain preparation, customer supply will not be affected in the short term.

◆ for the market trend after the epidemic, the judgment of Gaogong lithium battery combined with the survey data is that the rigid demand market, including digital, electric bicycles, electric tools and so on, will recover rapidly, and the overall impact is not large, but in the field of vehicle power batteries, it is expected to face some downward pressure in the second and third quarters.

◆ at the same time, the elimination of power battery enterprises will be more severe, and capital will become the biggest crisis for enterprises. The cash flow of lithium battery industry itself is not good. Affected by the epidemic, it will increase the capital turnover of many enterprises, and bank lending will also give priority to central and state-owned enterprises. In the situation of economic downturn, the state and government will take good care of the large economy first, and do not give much support to the new energy industry.

Impact of lithium battery equipment enterprises: short-term order delivery delay, long-term industry elimination acceleration

◆ more than 80% of domestic lithium battery equipment enterprises are located in Dongguan, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. Affected by the epidemic, the resumption of work in the equipment industry as a whole is generally delayed by about two weeks.

As Hubei accounts for a large proportion of migrant workers in Guangdong Province, it is greatly implicated in the return of workers. According to the survey data of lithium battery of senior engineers, as of February 20, the on-the-job rate of employees in equipment enterprises in Guangdong was only about 50%, which affected the normal operation of enterprises after returning to work.

◆ predictably, after the epidemic, with the expansion of downstream production capacity and the recovery of project promotion, head equipment enterprises will face short-term delivery pressure, so it is necessary to prepare personnel, supply chain, etc. in advance.

◆ the common judgment of most equipment enterprises is that in the long run, the epidemic will not have a great impact on the equipment demand industry, and the general trend of the long-term improvement of the new energy vehicle and power battery industry will not change.

◆ but there is no doubt that this epidemic will bring huge pressure on the capital chain of small and medium-sized equipment enterprises, accelerate the polarization of the industry, and some small and medium-sized equipment enterprises and start-ups that lack fixed customer binding will accelerate the elimination or even bankruptcy.

Impact of lithium battery material industry: exports will be affected in the short term, and the medium and long-term concentration will further increase

◆ lithium battery material enterprises basically kept some production lines running during the Spring Festival holiday. Affected by the epidemic, the production lines recovered in a short time, causing problems, which affected the supply of downstream customers to a certain extent. As the enterprise gradually completes the resumption of work, it will recover quickly.

From the perspective of domestic demandThe demand for automotive power batteries has shrunk, while the demand for batteries in the fields of digital, electric tools, electric bicycles and so on has not changed much, so it will be reflected in the material end accordingly.

From the perspective of foreign demandThe export of lithium battery materials in China accounts for more than 70% of the global lithium battery materials. Affected by the epidemic, due to the delay in the resumption of work, the export order delivery of head material enterprises including cathode, cathode, electrolyte, diaphragm and so on has been affected in the short term.

◆ in addition, as in the field of batteries and equipment, affected by the capital chain, many material enterprises will face greater pressure for survival, and the medium and long-term industrial reshuffle and integration will be accelerated. The concentration of market segments will be further improved, and mergers and integration cases in the industry similar to Enjie's acquisition of Jieli will continue in 2020.

◆ with the continuous growth of the global market, the internationalization of Chinese lithium battery material enterprises will be further promoted, in which patents will play an increasingly important role.

Article source:High tech lithium power grid

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