According to the research data of the Institute of lithium battery research (GGII) of high industry and research,In 2019, the market shipment of lithium battery cathode materials in China was 265000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 38%. Among them, the shipment of artificial graphite was 208000 tons, accounting for 78.5% of the total shipment of cathode materials, an increase of 9.2 percentage points compared with 2018.

In 2019, the market shipment of cathode materials maintained a steady growth rate, mainly due to:

1) Driven by the growth of the power battery terminal market, the power battery market shipment in 2019 was 71gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, which led to the growth of the cathode material market shipment;

2) The market further increased the application of high magnification and fast charging products, which led to the rapid growth of the shipment of artificial graphite. In 2019, the shipment of artificial graphite was 208000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 56.3%;

3) WithBeiteri, Jiangxi Zichen, Ningbo ShanshanThe export volume of enterprises represented by continues to increase, driven by the growth of LG and Panasonic power battery shipments, the export volume of Shanshan and beiteri increases significantly;

4) The explosion of domestic small power and communication energy storage markets has led to an increase in lithium battery shipments, which in turn has led to an increase in cathode shipments.

Data source: Institute of lithium battery research (GGII), February 2020

From the perspective of the negative electrode material market, the negative electrode material market in 2019 mainly has the following characteristics:

1) Based on the changes of its customer structure and marketing strategy, Kaijin's shipment volume in 2019 continued to grow significantly, ranking fourth, and the gap with the top three was further narrowed;

2) The graphitization capacity in Inner Mongolia was further released, which reduced the graphitization processing cost by more than 20%, thus driving the negative electrode price downward;

3) Beiteri still ranks first in terms of shipments, and the gap between the second and fourth enterprises in terms of shipments has gradually narrowed. Driven by the increase in shipments of overseas power battery enterprises, the proportion of exports of Shanshan and beiteri cathode materials has further increased.

From the perspective of price trend, the overall market price of cathode materials showed a downward trend from 2018 to 2019. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the price of artificial graphite fell by 14% year-on-year, and the price of natural graphite fell by 11.4% year-on-year. The main reasons for the price decline include the following two aspects:

1) The release of graphitization capacity and the scale effect have led to the continuous decline of graphitization prices. At present, the average market price of graphitization outsourcing processing is 18-22 thousand yuan / ton, and the cost of self built graphitization processing is 12-14 thousand yuan / ton, with a decrease of 20% - 40%;

2) In 2019, the production capacity of needle coke was gradually released, resulting in a 60% - 70% decrease in the price of needle coke compared with 2018, and the price range remained at 85-12000 yuan / ton.

GGII predicts that in 2020, with the further release of needle coke capacity and graphitization capacity, the price of cathode materials will decline further.

Data source: Institute of lithium battery research (GGII), February 2020

The lithium battery cathode material market will continue to grow rapidly in 2020, mainly due to the following aspects:

1) Driven by the new energy vehicle terminals, it is estimated that the annual output of electric vehicles in China will exceed 1.8 million in 2020, driving the growth rate of power battery demand is expected to exceed 40%, thereby driving the rapid growth of cathode materials;

2) The capacity release of overseas power battery enterprises such as LG, Panasonic and ski has accelerated, and the demand for cathode materials has increased, which is expected to further increase the export volume of domestic cathode materials;

3) Fast charging and multiple rate batteries will still be an important direction of market development, and the proportion of artificial graphite cathode materials is expected to exceed 80%, driving the overall growth of the cathode material market.

The cathode material market as a whole will still maintain rapid growth, but the output growth rate is slow, the pressure on the industry capital chain is large, and the gross profit margin is still low. The negative electrode material market in 2020 is expected to have the following characteristics:

1) The self built graphite chemical plant of leading enterprises and the release of graphitization capacity have further accelerated, and energy conservation and consumption reduction have become the first choice for graphitization bases;

2) The binding of key customers of leading enterprises has been further deepened, and the layout of second-line echelon cathode material enterprises and foreign power battery enterprises has accelerated;

3) Affected by the release of production capacity, the price of needle coke is expected to be further reduced by more than 10%. With the release of graphitization production capacity and the emergence of large-scale effects, the graphitization processing price is expected to drop to 10000-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of artificial graphite materials will remain at a range of 2% - 5%.

In the next three years, the competition in the cathode material market will be further intensified, and the low-end repeated production capacity will be eliminated. Only enterprises with core technology and advantageous customer channels can achieve considerable development, and the market concentration will be further improved, which will increase the operating pressure on the second and third tier cathode material enterprises.

Article source:High tech lithium power grid