According to statistics, the world in 2019Power batteryShipments are about 117gwh, with a year-on-year increase of about 17%, and the growth rate has declined. However, EU carbon emissions are becoming stricter in 2020. It is expected that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in Europe will reach 3.36 million in 2025, accounting for 21.4% of the total sales of passenger vehicles; China's 2021-2023 double point exposure draft is expected to drive the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles to reach more than 20% in 2025. Combined with the power, energy storage and consumer battery demand of the United States and other countries, the global lithium battery demand is expected to reach 950gwh in 2025, and the compound growth rate is predicted to be about 31% in the next six years.

If single GWH is assumedLithium copper foilIf the demand is 800 tons, the global demand for lithium battery copper foil will be about 750000 tons in 2025, with a corresponding market value of about 57 billion yuan.

The thinning of copper foil conforms to the trend of high energy density of battery, and the cost can be reduced by reducing the amount of copper foil. Catl starts as early as 2018 6 μ M copper foil switching, currently has achieved more than 90% penetration; BYD, GuoXuan high tech and other domestic battery manufacturers are also actively introducing 6 μ M copper foil, domestic 6 μ M copper foil permeability is expected to increase to more than 55%. Overseas companies such as LG and SK have begun to use 6 in small batches μ m. It is expected that the next few years will be a period of large-scale switching windows.

In the process of copper foil thinning, the requirements for enterprise equipment accuracy, additive formula and other processes are increased, forming a line barrier; At the same time, due to the capacity constraints of the core equipment cathode roll, the production expansion cycle is as long as 2-3 years, so the supply side is slow. We predict that the supply-demand gap from 2020 to 2021 will be -7000 tons and 2000 tons respectively.

With the acceleration of the market, lithium battery ultra-thin copper foil head enterprises have achieved high performance growth. According to the latest financial report data, Jiayuan technology achieved a revenue of 1.153 billion in 2018, an increase of 103.68% over the same period last year, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 176 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of double. The high performance growth in 2018 mainly benefited from 6 μ M the amount of lithium copper foil. Jiayuan technology is one of the few in China that can achieve 6 μ M for enterprises with mass production of products, the product has high profitability (gross profit margin of 39% in 2018), and the main customer is catl.

The top five customers of Jiayuan technology include catl, ATL, BYD, Funeng and Xingheng power. Except for Funeng, the cooperation time has exceeded 8 years. Among them, Jiayuan technology 6 μ M copper foil accounts for 60% of similar products purchased by catl, accounting for a high proportion; It has been cooperating with BYD since its inception. In addition, the company is currently actively reserving 4.5 μ m、5 μ M extremely thin copper foil to maintain product competitiveness.

Article source:Battery China