[industry] copper foil prices continue to rise, and related companies are expected to benefit

Since the resumption of production, the price of copper foil has increased significantly. In March 2020, affected by the epidemic, 6 μ M and 8 μ The average price of M copper foil is 70.5 yuan / kg and 90.5 yuan / kg respectively. December 2020, 6 μ The price of M copper foil is 76 yuan / kg, up 7.8% from March; eight μ The price of M copper foil is 94 yuan / kg, up 5.0% from March.

As for the reasons for the rise in the price of copper foil, Soochow Securities pointed out that as the carrier of copper foil, the demand for national copper clad laminate increased significantly, resulting in the rise of import unit price. In October 2020, the unit prices of copper clad laminates imported and exported by China were 19.71 and 5.68 dollars / kg respectively, 16.2% and -4.5% year-on-year in a single month. Since the resumption of work and production, the output of new energy vehicles has increased restoratively. In July / August / September / October 2020, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 36.7% / 31.6% / 51.1% / 94.1% year-on-year. According to the latest data, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China in November was 180000, an increase of 128.6% year-on-year. In addition, in September 2020, China's exports of electronic components totaled 16.2% year-on-year; Since the resumption of production, the sales profit margin of China's electronic components manufacturers has rebounded significantly, rising from only 4.22% in March 2020 to 8.38% in September. The main downstream of copper foil is the pro cyclical industry, and the demand growth brought by economic recovery is relatively obvious. (source: Securities Times)

[analysis] the overall demand of the industry is improving, and the digestion of production capacity is accelerating. 6 μ M and below products have a good competition pattern

According to incomplete statistics, the production capacity of leading manufacturers in China's lithium battery copper foil industry will reach 160000 tons in 2020, and the overall capacity surplus trend is still showing, but 6 μ M and below, with the explosive growth of the installed capacity of head power battery manufacturers such as Ningde times and the improvement of the penetration rate of light and thin copper foil, its demand is expected to be effectively supported. In addition, the lithium battery copper foil industry focuses on asset investment, and the capacity expansion cycle is long, which will take about 2 years. It is expected that in the next 3 years 6 μ Marginal improvement of supply and demand structure of products of M and below. (source: Guosen Securities)

[observation] who owns the ups and downs of copper clad laminate production enterprises of listed companies

Statistics show that there are many sub products of CCL, and the domestic manufacturers have structural surplus of medium and low-end CCL products. According to prismark statistics, the global copper clad laminate market sales in 2019 reached US $12.4 billion, of which conventional FR-4 (glass fiber cloth based epoxy resin copper foil substrate) copper clad laminates accounted for 35%. The low-end capacity of domestic copper clad laminates is in excess of demand. In 2019, the overall capacity of domestic copper clad laminates was 911million square meters and the output was only 714million square meters. The overall capacity utilization rate was 78%, of which the capacity of glass fiber cloth based FR-4 and CEM-3 copper clad laminates, which are more basic products, accounted for 62.4%, while the actual output accounted for 57.2%, and FR-4 has structural overcapacity.

At present, among the listed companies, the enterprises that produce copper clad laminates mainly include Jiantao laminate, Shengyi Technology (600183.sh), Jin'an Guoji (002636.sz), Huazheng new material (603184.sh) and South Asia new material (688519.sh).

Although the price of copper clad laminate has increased many times, and the production capacity of Jiantao laminate is the largest, because it is still dominated by traditional copper clad laminate, it will benefit from the price increase of copper clad laminate in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, due to the weak layout of Jiantao laminate on high-frequency and high-speed copper clad laminate, Shengyi technology takes the lead in the layout of high-frequency and high-speed copper clad laminate, which has a certain competitive advantage and is expected to cross the cycle of copper clad laminate, thus dominating the entire copper clad laminate industry. (source: Zhitong finance and Economics Network)

Figure / Jiayuan Technology

[think tank circle] the supply and demand pattern of copper foil industry will be improved

Soochow Securities believes that benefiting from the increased penetration of new energy vehicles in the downstream, the intensive construction of 5g base stations and the substantial growth of the ID market, the supply and demand pattern of the copper foil industry will be improved, and the price rise will be sustainable.

In the field of lithium battery copper foil, Guosen Securities believes that the current industry application end is 8 μ M and above lithium battery copper foil direction 6 μ M and below products are mainly switched, which has formed a trend dominated by leading power battery enterprises, followed by first and second tier enterprises, and the industry penetration rate has gradually increased.

Article source:Battery net