On September 2, in the domestic commodity futures market, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 1911 recorded a rise in the opening trading limit. As of the morning, the closing increase was locked at 6% to 136960 yuan / ton, setting a new high since its listing. Nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to US $18470 / ton during the day.

Overseas market news is still the main reason for the rise

Before the sharp rise in the internal and external prices of nickel commodity futures on September 2, Shanghai nickel night trading went out of the one word limit last Friday, hitting a record high. On the same day, LUNI nickel rose by more than 10%, breaking through $18000 / ton, and also setting a new high since September 2014.

This round of nickel price rise began in early July this year.

After four months of volatile decline, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started a volatile rise on July 8, with an increase of more than 20% in just two weeks. Since then, the main contract continued to rise after a short correction, with a cumulative increase of nearly 40% in the past two months.

The explosive rise in nickel prices is inseparable from the news of overseas markets.

"Nickel has been relatively strong since the second half of this year, mainly due to the tightening of overseas nickel mine supply." Chengxiaoyong, director of Baocheng futures Finance Research Institute, said in an interview with the reporter of securities times · e company that the supply of nickel ore mainly has two parts, one is laterite nickel ore, the other is nickel oxide ore. At present, laterite nickel ore imported by China accounts for more than 50%, mainly from the Philippines and Indonesia. Indonesia has made restrictive regulations on the export of nickel ores since about 2016. In 2017, the export of nickel ores with a content of less than 1.7% was relaxed, but recently there was a ban on these products. It is reported that Indonesia will ban the export of nickel ore from the end of December. A spokesman for the Ministry of energy, mining and resources of Indonesia said that Indonesia would suspend nickel ore exports at the end of December this year. The Minister of Mines of Indonesia said that new regulations on ore export restrictions had been signed.

Jinrui futures analysis said that the mining ban boots landed on Friday night, leading to a strong rise in nickel prices. As a result of the ore ban, the mineral iron structure of China and Indonesia has changed. There is no ore in China, and there is ore in Indonesia, but the iron production capacity is insufficient. Therefore, the final gap is reflected in the poor expectation of Indonesia's production increase and China's production reduction due to raw material problems. At present, the monthly output of domestic ferronickel has reached more than 50000 tons, and that of Indonesia is about 25000 tons, of which nearly 20000 tons of metal in domestic NPI comes from Indonesian mines, Assuming that there is no Indonesian ore import in China in 2020 and the increment in other regions is limited, the reduction of domestic NPI will reach 240000 tons. According to the current estimate of the project area planned to be put into operation in Indonesia, the increment in 2020 will be 150000 tons, with a gap of nearly 100000 tons in the middle.

Liumeili, a nickel product analyst at business agency, also said that in addition to the tightening of Indonesian nickel exports, it was previously reported that due to the depletion of resources, languyan, a high-grade nickel mine with the largest shipment in the Philippines, will stop mining in October. At present, the shipment capacity of the mine is about 600000 mixed tons / month, and the average nickel grade is more than 1.5%. In addition, ANC, another mine near the mine, is also facing the pressure of resource depletion. Although it has not been officially shut down at present, no high-grade minerals have been produced, mainly medium grade tailings. Due to the early development time, the depletion pressure of high-grade ore in tawi ta mining area is indeed large.

Stainless steel futures will soon be listed

In addition to the supply side gap is expected, the recent nickel downstream stainless steel commodity futures will be listed, which may also help the nickel price rise.

On August 30, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it approved the Shanghai Futures Exchange to carry out stainless steel futures trading and the Dalian Commodity Exchange to carry out styrene futures trading. The official trading time is September 25 and September 26 respectively.

It is reported that the Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch the world's first stainless steel futures, which will help regulate the circulation order, promote the formation of an open and fair pricing mechanism, further enhance China's pricing influence in the international stainless steel market, and provide price risk management tools for relevant industrial chain enterprises.

"The functions of commodity futures listing are similar, mainly playing the role of price discovery and changing industry pricing." Cheng Xiaoyong said that before the listing of commodity futures, the market price mainly refers to the monthly average price of commodity spot. After the listing, the price system will certainly be changed again. The national price will tend to be unified, which will have a direct response to the price and consumption of stainless steel, and the overall operation of the industry will be more effective. However, this does not mean that the market demand of stainless steel futures will be better after listing, so it is not directly related to the rise of nickel price.

However, some analysts believe that the sharp rise in nickel prices this round may also be affected by the cooperation of downstream stainless steel enterprises.

Liu Meili said that since this year, the domestic stainless steel market has remained depressed. Until June, several large domestic steel mills began to jointly raise prices by increasing the price of stainless steel while increasing the price of nickel. In this way, the rising cost caused by the rising price of raw materials gave a clear reason for the rise in the price of stainless steel. As large steel mills have prepared goods in advance, the cost is relatively locked, so in the resonance rising market of stainless steel and nickel prices, steel mills can achieve double gains at the futures end and the spot end. In addition, although the nickel price has risen for several consecutive days to reach the highest level in the year, there are still a large number of steel mills purchasing nickel plates in stock.

Concept stocks soared, and enterprises are optimistic about the future market

With the soaring nickel price, nickel concept stocks on the A-share market also ushered in an upward market. Although gene nickel, whose main business was nickel, and St Huaze have been delisted, Qingdao Zhongcheng and shengtun mining, whose enterprise resource allocation includes nickel ore, have been sought after.

On the morning of the 2nd, Qingdao Zhongcheng Mining Co., Ltd. and shengtun Mining Co., Ltd. both reported trading limits, and Pengxin resources, Xingye Mining Co., Ltd. and other stocks were also generally popular. As of the morning close, Qingdao Zhongcheng still closed the market limit, and the rise of shengtun mining fell back to 6.4%.

Qingdao Zhongcheng owns Madani nickel mine (2014 hectares) and BMU nickel mine (1963 hectares) in Indonesia, and has two high-grade nickel mines, with a total nickel reserve of about 200 million tons.

"The company's nickel ore is mainly used by enterprises in the Indonesian industrial and commercial park. At present, due to the small demand of downstream enterprises, the nickel ore held by the company has not been mined for the time being." For the opening limit of the company's share price on the 2nd, the relevant person in charge of Qingdao Zhongcheng said that although the company retains nickel resources, it is not actually affected by the rise in nickel prices. On the one hand, affected by the local policies of Indonesia, the company's nickel ore products are not used for export. On the other hand, the company belongs to a service enterprise, and the downstream production enterprises in the industrial park do not belong to the category of listed companies.

In 2018, shengtun mining announced that it plans to invest US $30million to obtain 32.01% equity after the issuance of United Nickel Industry Co., Ltd. (CNM), plans to participate in Monari nickel resources, and plans to obtain mineral underwriting rights. The Munari nickel mine production line was built in 2008. After the capital injection, the company expects that the Munari nickel mine will resume production within 6 months, and the annual production capacity is planned to reach 4650 tons of nickel and 360 tons of cobalt.

Then in August 2019, shengtun mining announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Hongsheng International Resources Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hongsheng international") planned to increase the capital of Huawei nickel, and then Hengtong Asia, a subsidiary established by Huawei nickel and Yongqing Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yongqing technology"), established Youshan nickel in Indonesia. Youshan nickel plans to invest and build a high nickel matte project with an annual output of 34000 tons of nickel metal in Indonesia, with a total investment of 407 million US dollars. According to the proportion of equity, the investment of shengtun mining is US $145million, equivalent to 1.024 billion yuan.

"If Indonesia finally restricts the export of nickel ore, it will undoubtedly be beneficial to the company." Zouyapeng, the Secretary of shengtun mining, said in an interview with the reporter of E company that the company's high matte products will be exported back to China, which are mainly used as raw materials for nickel sulfate and supplied to SanyuanPower batteryProduction. At present, the project has been put into construction and is expected to generate benefits as soon as June 2020. "The previous calculation of the economic benefits of the project was based on the market situation when nickel was low, and the current nickel market price has been much higher than the previous calculation price, which will also be beneficial to the company's benefits." He said.

It is reported that the CNM project invested by shengtun mining in 2018 has been put into production and sales, with a nickel production capacity of 4650 tons, directly generating 25000 tons of nickel sulfate, and the products have also been exported back to China.

"At present, from the perspective of the large cycle, nickel has entered the upward channel, the short-term bull market will not end, and it is difficult for nickel metal prices to fall to the previous low position." Zouyapeng believes that the price trend of non-ferrous metals should follow the big cycle, and the bear market will rise after a long time. At present, there are many market views, but at least two points will have an impact on the market. First, the news of Indonesia's ban on nickel exports has not yet been finalized, and the final implementation method and duration will have an impact on the market. Second, if the export ban is determined in the later stage, a certain gap will be formed in the nickel market supply. at presentNew energy vehiclesThe demand for nickel metal has entered a period of steady growth, and the later market demand will gradually increase, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand.

Is the nickel bull market expected to continue?

Although "demon nickel" is becoming popular, analysts are not uniformly optimistic about the future of nickel prices.

Liu Meili believes that the rise in nickel prices is, on the one hand, capital speculation, played by rumors. On the other hand, LME nickel inventory is at a historical low, which is in line with the corresponding price expectations. With the bombing of the expected stoppage of nickel mining, it is difficult for nickel not to rise. However, on the demand side, in addition tonew energyIn addition to the new drive of cars, in the general environment of the trade war, all walks of life are not easy. With the sharp rise in nickel prices, downstream stainless steel rose passively, but the actual shipment was not good. Although nickel prices have repeatedly ignited under the condition of short supply, it is difficult to rise in one step without demand support. It is expected that the highest price of this year will appear in September and October. With the support of peak season demand and the shutdown of nickel mining in October, there may be room for nickel prices to rise in the future.

Cheng Xiaoyong said that from the market situation in the first half of the year, nickel ore supply is still the main reason for the rise in market prices. However, at present, some views also believe that the market has an excessive interpretation of the current rise in nickel commodity futures prices. At present, China's nickel ore inventory is excessive, which has reached the level that can fully meet the market demand until the first half of next year.

The downstream stainless steel demand of nickel is different from that of other products such as deformed steel. Stainless steel is used more in daily machinery and less in construction. Therefore, from the demand side, the demand for nickel is weak.

"The future trend of nickel will also depend on the current speculation of nickel mine news. From the current situation, it is difficult for the market to increase the price significantly, because even if the supply shrinks, the impact on the market will not change in the short term, and the market may have an adjustment of rising and falling after an over reaction. Even if it does have an impact on the supply, it will not appear in the fourth quarter. With the increase of nickel prices, some substitutes such as nickel beans and ferronickel will also Will gradually enter. " He said.

Article source:Lithium power grid