1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the cobalt price warmed up on July 15, and rose for the first time since July. On July 15, the cobalt price was 216833.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.31%; Compared with the cobalt price of 229500.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, it fell by 5.52%. After the sharp decline, the cobalt price rose for the first time in July. Does this mean that the cobalt market is coming in spring? How will the cobalt market develop in the future?

2、 Market analysis

The future of new energy vehicles is not optimistic

According to the wholesale sales data of passenger car manufacturers, 134000 passenger cars in the narrow sense of new energy were sold in June, an increase of 90% year-on-year. From January to June 2019, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 570000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 65%. June is the last month of the transition period of the new policy, which objectively stimulated early consumption and overdraw some future consumption. The surge in sales of new energy vehicles in June cannot reflect the real demand of the market. On the contrary, it will inhibit the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in the future. It is expected that the growth rate of new energy vehicles in the future will slow down, which is bad for the future cobalt Market.

Mobile phone sales decline

In June 2019, the overall shipment of domestic mobile phone market was 34.31 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%; From January to June 2019, the overall shipment volume of the domestic mobile phone market was 186million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. The decline in mobile phone sales and the decline in demand in the cobalt market are bad for the cobalt market.

Cobalt salt prices fell

It can be seen from the above table that the price of cobalt salt fell on July 15, which has great downward pressure on the price of metal cobalt. The downstream market of metal cobalt is bad, and the future market of cobalt market is bad, so it is difficult for the cobalt market to perform well in the short term.

4、 Outlook:

Baijiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that although the cobalt price briefly recovered on July 15, the cobalt market is still not optimistic. The price of cobalt salt in the downstream continued to fall, exerting great downward pressure on the price of metal cobalt; The new energy vehicle market performed fairly well in June, but it overdraw the future of future new energy vehicles. The future demand expectation of cobalt market was poor, and the rise of cobalt price lost support; Mobile phone sales fell sharply, the demand for cobalt fell, and the cobalt price was significantly negative. However, with the launch of 5g mobile phones, mobile phone sales may usher in explosive growth in the future. In the short term, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market will decline, and in the long term, the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market will rise; In terms of supply, although the cobalt mine collapse accident occurred in the DRC, the overall impact on the cobalt mine production capacity is small, and the supply of cobalt city is sufficient.

Generally speaking, the cobalt market has sufficient supply in the future, poor demand performance in the short term, long-term or explosive growth, and the cobalt price has no upward momentum in the short term, with great downward pressure. In the long run, the cobalt market is still optimistic, and the cobalt price has limited room to fall, making it difficult for the cobalt price to continue to fall. It is expected that the future cobalt price will fluctuate and fall in the short term, and will remain optimistic in the long term.

Article source:China battery network