Lithium power gridNews: This is a topic that is often mentioned, and I have been avoiding it for many years. The reason is that the digital battery is too messy and difficult to count.

Power batteryBecause most of them are installed innew energyOn the car, it is easy to figure out how much is used by tracing the installation data. For example, we can easily know that the installed capacity in 2018 is 57gwh and that in 2017 is 33gwh.

Digital batteries are different. In addition to the public sales of mobile phones, notebooks and tablet computers, there are quite a number of application fields that are not clear about how much they are used, such as twist cars, electric skateboards, mobile power supplies, electric wheelchairs, smart watches, electric tools and so on. Most public data show that power batteries have surpassed digital batteries as early as 2017. However, in fact, they are far from it.

The above is the 2018 year of Xinlu information statisticscathode materialComparing the output with the consumption of power cathode materials, it is obvious that the consumption of power cathode is less than 120000 tons in the whole year, while the consumption in other fields has reached 210000 tons, and the ratio of the two is almost 1:2.

Is our material output statistics inaccurate?

When we first started to do output statistics in 2017, I also had this question: maybe someone made a false report when collecting the enterprise? This phenomenon does happen from time to time, especially for unlisted small and medium-sized enterprises, there is no pressure of confidence, and there is a need for self publicity, which leads to false output. However, with the abundance of statistical means, this situation has become less and less: we have perfect statistical channels for the whole industry chain. For example, a cathode material enterprise will check its purchase of raw materials in addition to its declared output, such as itsLithium carbonateThe supplier's supply quantity and the supply quantity of cathode precursor material can be accepted only when the proportion of multiple parties is corresponding. At the same time,lithium batteryThe proportion of raw materials purchased by the factory should also be corresponding, such as how many tons of 1GWh iron lithium battery should be usedLithium iron phosphate、Negative electrode material, diaphragmelectrolyte, copper foil, there is a corresponding relationship. Recently, our survey on the copper foil industry shows that in 2018, the output of battery grade copper foil was 115000 tons (the data released by the electronic Copper Foil Association in the same period was 120000 tons). At the same time, the feedback from the battery factory is that the consumption ratio of copper foil to cathode is generally 1:3, which is consistent with the statistical output of our cathode materials again. Under the verification of many parties, I am more convinced that our statistical output is highly reliable.

Is it possible that many materials have been exported?

This question is easy to solve. The customs data are completely available. According to the inquiry, in terms of main materials, our exports are mainly negative materials and ternary precursor materials. The net import and export volume of main positive materials is very small, which cannot affect the conclusion.

The potential underwater digital battery market is much larger than expected

When I first started to do research on the lithium battery industry in 2013, I often heard industry insiders mention how dense the small digital battery manufacturers in Guangdong, Henan and other places are, but there is no way to make statistics at all. When you hear that an 18650 battery is only 1200mAh and the price is less than 1.5 yuan, you can't imagine how enterprises make such a cheap battery, and how much demand there will be for such a low-capacity battery. In fact, the so-called "garbage batteries" of 1200mAh and 1500mah are used in a large amount, and their applications are far beyond imagination. Only an unknown lithium battery factory in Henan Province, which the author knows, has a monthly output of 70million (annual actual output of 4gwh), and is still expanding its production. There is no doubt about this data. From the output of cathode to the purchase of lithium carbonate, we can get the corresponding manufacturers.

Then we can draw a conclusion

As of 2019, the output of digital batteries is still greater than that of power batteries. According to the statistics of materials, power batteries account for about 38% and digital batteries account for about 62%. In 2019, we estimate the output of each material as follows:

It can be seen that the consumption gap between power batteries and digital batteries is still large, and it is too early to talk about surpassing.

Article source:Lithium power grid